Tuesday, November 28, 2023

The US economy has stagnated in recent weeks.

The american economy stagnated because “it did not vary substantially in recent weeks”, has stated the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) in its Beige Book, a document that provides a detailed assessment of the economy by the country’s 12 regional central banks.

In this way, the bone scan it is worse than that obtained last March, when this document estimated that the economy did grow “slightly” at the beginning of the year. “Nine of the districts (territorial demarcations that cover the regional central banks, bringing together several states of the country) reported no or a slight increase in activity, while three reported modest growth,” the Fed explained.

He consumption It was “stable to slightly down,” with auto sales unchanged as only “a couple” districts reporting an increase in sales and inventories. In contrast, the tourism sector was robust in most territories.

Manufacturing activity stagnated or fell despite the fact that disruptions in the supply chains have been solved. Later, the activity of the primary sector “almost” did not register changes and the energy markets “softened”. Transportation and cargo volumes also stagnated or declined as in the industry.

For their part, residential real estate sales and the new construction sector “modestly moderated” their activity. Non-residential construction “barely changed” and the changes in the demand for purchase and rental were, in general, null with a downward trend.

Refering to credit demand and credit flows, these fell both in their consumer and business variants. “Several districts reported that banks tightened standards of concession due to the growing uncertainty and concern about liquidity”, the document has prepared. Even so, most of the demarcations recorded an evolution in demand and sales of “stable on the rise” for non-financial services.

The job accused a slowdown of growth from cooling labor markets in some regions compared to previous Beige Books.

The Fed found that “a small number” of companies laid off en masse, mainly in “specific groups” of large companies. Other companies opted, however, for a “natural wear” of payrolls, only rehiring for those critically important positions.

The Fed’s business contacts indicated that the labor market is no longer so “tight”, with companies benefiting from higher employee retention. In addition, wage growth has moderated, although it remains “elevated.”

With respect to pricesthese grew “moderately”, although the progress of these increases “seems to be slowing down”.

Fed contacts reported “modest to sharp” falls in commodity prices. supplies non-labor and transport prices “considerably lower”. Even so, producer prices for finished goods rose “modestly”, but at a more contained pace.

The pressures in sales prices were “generally eased” in the manufacturing and service sectors. Consumer prices rose on still-high demand, as well as rising inventory and service costs.

Home prices and rents stabilized in most districts, but remained close to all-time highs.

Fed contacts expect inflationary pressures on inputs to continue to be contained in the future, but they anticipated greater volatility in inputs compared to previous years.


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