He Malaga CF and his fans are going to fight until the last second of the match of day 42 of the SmartBank League against UD Ibiza -with a foot and a half already in non-professional football- to keep his place in Second division. Until the math says otherwise. There are still five points with six games to go that separate the blue and white team from permanence. However, the improvement on the pitch for Sergio Pellicer’s men has not only had a great impact on the standings, but also on the confidence given by advanced statistics.
According to a study of optwhich analyzes the possibility of a team ending the season in a certain positionMálaga CF has a 22.7% chance of saving its place in LaLigaSmartBank 2023/2024. With very few matches to put an end to the campaign, it is true that it may seem like a very low number. However, the jump is important with respect to the previous study because that number oscillated around 10% when those of Martiricos had not entered the streak of four victories in the last five duels.
Although it has improved, the statistics, and only the statistics, continue to see the blue and white team in the First RFEF. Considering the calendar that awaits Málaga CF in the final sprint and also that of its direct rivals, Those of Pellicer would have a 61.8% chance -the highest- of being in 19th positionwhich is what he maintains now.
With regard to the teams that would be relegated at the end of the League, the Opta company is very clear. In addition to the costasoleños, they give Ponferradina a 98.6% chance of being among the last four teams -82.4% of being the twentieth-, and 100% both to UD Ibiza -which could lose the category this weekend with a defeat against Racing- and to Lugo -in the First RFEF after losing on Sunday against Málaga CF-.
Now, according to the numbers, who is the great rival for permanence? Who is the team to fight for that 18th place? Not even the blue and white fans themselves are clear about it, much less Opta. The British sports company gives Racing Santander a 25% chance of being the great rival -with which Málaga CF will always have to add one more point to surpass it in the table due to the average lost-. Curiously, the next candidate would be the Villarreal B, with 19.4%after his collapse in recent days -which still has Burgos, Las Palmas and Levante left-.
For example, at Huesca -Málaga CF’s rival next Monday at La Rosaleda- only they give you a 1% drop, while Sporting de Gijón gets 3.4% and Leganés 4.4%. Therefore, according to these data, the blue and whites would have their great rivals for the permanence in Racing and Villarreal B.
Malaga against statistics
Of course, despite the many issues that there are to think that it is not possible, the fans and the city are going to fight against everyone and everything that lies ahead. Málaga CF has three home games left and three sellouts are expected. The first one is already confirmed against Huesca (Monday / 6:30 p.m.), even the supporters clubs sold out their tickets this Wednesday.
Then you will have to visit Ponferrada, the Mirandés will arrive in Martiricos, you will have to travel to play against Alavés and there could be a vital duel against Ibiza on the last day with the Costa del Sol as a backdrop. There is nothing left, just five games in which Pellicer’s men are going to leave the same life because no matter how much the numbers say where there is life, there is hope and football is a lot of football to give something up for lost.